Gold & the dollar
How the dollar and Treasury yields move the gold price
Two forces move gold more than anything else from day to day: the US dollar and interest rates. Here is how each one works, and where they stand this morning — Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Descriptive, not predictive. For the full set of forces and their live correlations, see The Drivers.
Gold and the US dollar (DXY)
Gold is priced in US dollars worldwide, so the two tend to move in opposite directions. When the dollar strengthens, gold becomes more expensive for buyers using other currencies, which can soften demand and weigh on the price; when the dollar weakens, gold tends to firm. The US Dollar Index (DXY) measures the dollar against a basket of major currencies.
This inverse relationship is a strong medium-term tendency — not a rule. It has broken down for stretches, including 2008, 2020 and early 2026, when the dollar and gold rose together as buyers reached for both at once. When that happens, another force — usually real yields or safe-haven demand — is doing the heavier lifting.
Gold and Treasury yields (5, 10 and 30-year)
Gold pays no interest or dividend, so it competes with the return on government bonds. When Treasury yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding metal increases, which has tended to weigh on gold; when yields fall, that cost shrinks and gold has often firmed. The 5-, 10- and 30-year yields span the curve from shorter to longer maturities.
Yields are quoted as a rate, and the day-over-day move is shown in basis points (1bp = 0.01%). A move in the longer end (the 10- and 30-year) tends to matter most for gold, because it shapes the real return on safe assets over the horizons gold buyers weigh.
Gold and real yields & inflation
What gold tracks most closely is the real yield — the nominal Treasury yield minus expected inflation. A high nominal yield paired with high inflation can leave the real return low or negative, which reduces gold’s opportunity cost; a low nominal yield with low inflation can still leave real yields elevated.
Falling or negative real yields have historically been among the most reliable tailwinds for gold, because they shrink the advantage of holding interest-bearing assets over a metal that pays nothing. Real yields are often read from inflation-protected Treasuries (TIPS).
Today’s snapshot
Where the dollar, the yields and bullion stand this weekday morning before the US open — Wednesday, August 5, 2026. Each card shows the latest level, the day-over-day change, and a computed trend/range/momentum read. These describe where each market is, not where it is going.
Gold & silver
Gold GC=F
Between its 50-day ($4,176.29) and 200-day ($4,478.32) averages — a trend in transition.
30-day range $3,985.60–$4,231.60; currently in the upper third of that range. RSI(14) 69 — momentum firm.
Silver SI=F
Trading below both its 50-day ($63.31) and 200-day ($70.02) averages — the longer-term trend reads as down.
30-day range $55.90–$61.92; currently in the upper third of that range. RSI(14) 69 — momentum firm.
The US dollar
US Dollar Index DX-Y.NYB
Between its 50-day (100.46) and 200-day (99.15) averages — a trend in transition.
30-day range 99.74–101.61; currently in the lower third of that range. RSI(14) 33 — momentum weak.
Treasury yields
5-Year Treasury ^FVX
Trading above both its 50-day (4.27%) and 200-day (3.92%) averages — the longer-term trend reads as up.
30-day range 4.13%–4.46%; currently in the middle third of that range. RSI(14) 57 — momentum firm.
10-Year Treasury ^TNX
Trading above both its 50-day (4.53%) and 200-day (4.29%) averages — the longer-term trend reads as up.
30-day range 4.37%–4.74%; currently in the upper third of that range. RSI(14) 57 — momentum firm.
30-Year Treasury ^TYX
Trading above both its 50-day (5.03%) and 200-day (4.87%) averages — the longer-term trend reads as up.
30-day range 4.86%–5.28%; currently in the upper third of that range. RSI(14) 61 — momentum firm.
Frequently asked questions
Why does gold fall when the dollar rises?
Gold is priced in US dollars worldwide, so a stronger dollar makes it more expensive for buyers using other currencies, which can soften demand and the price. It is a tendency, not a guarantee — the two sometimes rise together.
Does gold always move opposite the dollar?
No. The inverse relationship is a strong medium-term tendency, but it breaks down for stretches — for example in 2008, 2020 and early 2026, when the dollar and gold rose together. Other forces, such as real yields, safe-haven demand and central-bank buying, can dominate.
How do interest rates affect the gold price?
Gold pays no interest, so it competes with the yield on government bonds. Higher Treasury yields raise the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding metal and have tended to weigh on gold; lower yields reduce that cost and have often supported it.
What are real yields and why do they matter for gold?
A real yield is a nominal Treasury yield minus expected inflation. Gold tracks real yields more closely than nominal ones: falling or negative real yields lower the opportunity cost of holding gold and have historically been among the most reliable tailwinds for it.