How we measure this

The Drivers describes how gold and each force have moved and related. Everything below is computed from public daily data; nothing here forecasts where the price is going.

The correlation

For each daily driver, we compute the Pearson correlation (r) between gold’s daily change and the driver’s daily change, over rolling windows of 30, 90 and 180 days. r runs from −1 (moved exactly opposite) through 0 (no consistent link) to +1 (moved exactly together).

It is computed on daily changes (first differences), not raw levels, so the figure describes genuine day-to-day co-movement rather than a shared long-term trend. Figures use the last two years of daily closes and refresh every weekday.

Plain-language bands

We map |r| to words: 0.6 and above is a strong link; 0.4 to 0.6 a moderate link; 0.2 to 0.4 a loose link; below 0.2 little or no link. A negative r means that when one rose, the other tended to fall; a positive r means they tended to rise and fall together.

When we don’t show a number

If a window has too few overlapping daily observations, we show “not enough data yet” rather than a flimsy figure. Gold’s volatility index (GVZ) is read as a level versus its 2-year range rather than as a correlation.

Data sources

The gold price comes from MetalpriceAPI and Twelve Data. Real yields, the US dollar index, Treasury yields, inflation breakevens and gold volatility come from FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). Central-bank and supply figures come from the World Gold Council.